Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于Delphi扫描线技术的快速图像处理

传统的图像处理一般采用像素点赋值的方法,处理速度极慢,对于大型图像几乎无能为力,而Delphi扫描线方法是对图像的每一行进行扫描,获得各像素的内存地址.这种内存操作比常规的像素点赋值效率高很多,从而可以大大提高大型位图图像的处理速度.     

蒸发波导环境中基于ZMNL的海杂波仿真

针对海上蒸发波导环境中雷达目标的识别,提出了蒸发波导中基于零记忆非线性变换(ZMNL)的海杂波实现方法。该方法确定了海杂波K分布参数与蒸发波导高度间的关系,可得到不同蒸发波导高度、不同探测距离处的相关K分布杂波序列。给出了应用该方法产生杂波的具体步骤,仿真实验证明了该方法用于蒸发波导中海杂波建模的有效性。     

Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models

This paper deals with the analysis of the number of tourists travelling to the Canary Islands by means of using different seasonal statistical models. Deterministic and stochastic seasonality is considered. For the latter case, we employ seasonal unit roots and seasonally fractionally integrated models. As a final approach, we also employ a model with possibly different orders of integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. All these models are compared in terms of their forecasting ability in an out‐of‐sample experiment. The results in the paper show that a simple deterministic model with seasonal dummy variables and AR(1) disturbances produce better results than other approaches based on seasonal fractional and integer differentiation over short horizons. However, increasing the time horizon, the results cannot distinguish between the model based on seasonal dummies and another using fractional integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

融合子带方差和FD变换的长记忆过程仿真

根据长记忆过程小波变换的频带分割及其去相关性，提出了“子带方差”的概念，并给出了在长记忆条件下的估算公式。在此基础上，构造了一种具有扩展记忆功能的FD变换，该变换可以将一个无记忆的、独立同分布的随机序列转化为具有指定长记忆特性的随机序列，由此实现对长记忆过程的仿真。对仿真序列进行模型比较和参数估计证实，基于子带方差的FD变换可以有效地扩展和控制随机序列的记忆性。     

大通县森林资源动态变化分析

本文根据1989年和2005年青海省大通县森林资源规划设计调查资料,从森林的面积、蓄积两个方面对大通的森林资源16年来的消长变化进行了分析,为今后有关部门制定相关政策和决策提供科学依据。     

An oscillatory neural network and dynamical associative memory

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基于胜率预测的空战关键节点确定方法

以提高空战训练评估效率为目标,着眼于确定影响战局走向的关键节点,提出了一种基于胜率预测的空战关键节点确定方法。首先,基于长短期记忆网络设计并训练胜率预测模型,以实时评估空战态势;其次,引入最大类间方差法确定关键节点阈值,并将相邻时刻胜率差绝对值大于阈值的时间点确认为关键节点。实验结果表明,所设计的胜率预测模型预测胜率准确,所采用的关键节点阈值选择方法合理,总体方案具有可行性和泛化性。     

多任务的分时运行作业环境

该文研究ＤＯＳ系统下一个多任务实时处理系统环境的设计，该系统充分利用８０３８６支持的扩展内存，每个作业以覆盖程序的方式装入扩展内存中运行，并对每个作业（覆盖程序）进行调度管理、对输入输出信息以及覆盖程序常用函数库进行管理。此系统应用于证券实时分析系统中，取得了良好的效果。     

Volterra series based predistortion for broadband RF power amplifiers with memory effects

RF power amplifiers(PAs)are usually considered as memoryless devices in most existing predistortion techniques.However,in broadband communication systems,such as WCDMA,the PA memory effects are significant,and memoryless predistortion cannot linearize the PAs effectively.After analyzing the PA memory effects,a novel predistortion method based on the simplified Volterra series is proposed to linearize broadband RF PAs with memory effects.The indirect learning architecture is adopted to design the predistortion scheme and the recursive least squares algorithm with forgetting factor is applied to identify the parameters of the predistorter.Simulation results show that the proposed predistortion method can compensate the nonlinear distortion and memory effects of broadband RF PAs effectively.